Let’s take this in steps.
Air Defense Iranian air defense was not active for the first attack wave. They were online for the second one, about six hours later. It’s unclear why. I have heard two credible claims. The first is that they were hit by a cyber-attack, but came online faster than the Israelis expected.
The second is that the Iranians deliberately played rope-a-dope. The first attack was largely a matter of stand-off munitions, which the Israelis have (had) very limited supplies of. The Iranians tanked that hit, counting on the fact that most military targets were underground and hardened. Then when the second attack happened, which required close in attack, the air defenses were turned on. Because they had not been compromised in the first attack (air defense use makes air defense visible) they were much more effective.
Intelligence Penetration of Iran This was obviously severe, given the number of senior personnel killed during the initial attacks, and given how much of the initial attacks were carried out by drones and automated anti-air defense inside Iran. But what needs to be understood is that Mossad’s networks are being severely degraded. Intelligence networks which are passive, which don’t do anything very active, can exist for years or even decades, but when they go live and are actually used for attacks assets are exposed. Reports are pouring out of Iran of raids on Israeli intelligence agents and collaborators, and while they may be overstated, I find them credible, because it’s how such things work. Israel has gone big, and they are burning assets.
Iranian Counter-Attack This was strong, but not as strong as it could have been. While there’s reason to believe that a lot of the missile launchers hit were dummies, the Iranians should have been able to launch about a thousand missiles in a salvo, and they didn’t. Air defense systems are very subject to be being overwhelmed by numbers. Now it’s possible that they didn’t because they wanted the data from initial strikes to pinpoint air defense, and that each wave was designed to “clear a path”, the first strike, even, hit hard: taking out a lot of military assets and state capacity.
It should also be noted that Iran has not used its most advanced missiles yet. The stuff being sent is mostly old crap that would have been decommissioned in a few years anyway, interspersed with some better missiles, but not the most recent varieties. Iran still has a lot held for future attacks.
If you need a little cheering up, this video compilation of hits on Tel Aviv (obviously partial), may help.
A compilation of direct hits by Iran’s Ballistic Missiles on June 13th & 14th’s nights. pic.twitter.com/unmgJiCIdF
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) June 15, 2025
Here is some footage of destruction:
Israeli TV Channel 11 showed video of destruction in the cities of Bat Yam and Rehovot
Meanwhile, Iran’s high command issued a statement:
” Our old missiles saw what they did in Tel Aviv, the Israel will have to wait for our newest technical missiles tonight.” pic.twitter.com/K1xKddCMxv
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) June 15, 2025
Some footage of destruction in Tel Aviv itself.
Yes, this is Tel Aviv.
What word would you use to describe this ? pic.twitter.com/JeFFVLj4Y8
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) June 15, 2025
All of this is much worse than the previous Iranian attacks. Real destruction. I will point out that if Iran had done this after the embassy assassinations they might have restored deterrence and not suffered this particular attack. Cowardice has its price, and it is often greater than that of bravery.
Finally, from the IDF itself:
IDF ‘would rather not millions of Israelis run to shelter’ pic.twitter.com/dzbvDp4Nbf
— RT (@RT_com) June 14, 2025
Israel does not have enough interceptors and air defense to stop the Iranians from completely devastating their country, which is why they are begging everyone to help them. Iran is already beginning to target Israeli Air Defense. US naval assets can only help so much, as they carry limited supplies and the US itself produces very few air defense missiles every year. Using them all up in Israel will make America completely defenseless in any other war (and Zelensky is already squealing.)
This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.
And What About Nukes? Well, I find this interesting. Directly contradicting Khameini in public is important.
Iranian Major General Mohsen Rezaei on Iranian Radio and Television:
We are still exercising restraint and have not deployed all our capabilities to avoid global chaos.
However, we may reach a point where we use new weapons.
We are seeking to form an Islamic army with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and several other countries.
We should move towards the atomic bomb, but according to the Supreme Leader’s fatwa, we do not currently intend to build nuclear weapons.
Iraq should know, it is their turn after us. Iran may be forced to take actions that could destabilize the entire region.
It is, of course, obvious that if Iran had nukes, much or most of this would never have happened. North Korean leaders do not worry about being murdered in their sleep by foreign missiles, drones and bombs.
The China Syndrome. All of the materials required to build drones and ballistic missiles are available, cheap, from China. China gets a lot of oil from Iran, uses Iran for transhipment, and is in general a major ally of Iran. It is also aware that taking out Iran is one of the steps before war with it. Just as I said that China would not allow Russia to be taken out by sanctions (and was right), I expect China in the case of any sort of duration of this war, and, indeed, after it, to supply Iran with everything it needs to ramp up production of missiles and drones. Since China’s production abilities exceed those of the West when it comes to these requirements, this is not a small thing.
No Army Means No Fall. Iran cannot be defeated by airpower alone unless there is a significant uprising in the country which the army is unable or unwilling to stop. One should never underestimate the CIA’s regime change abilities, of course, but if they don’t pull it off then this war is about reducing Iran’s power projection ability: doing enough damage that they surrender in spirit if not in fact.
The Khameini Problem. Nations rot from the top, and this is clearly the fundamental problem in Iran. Khameini is cautious, even timid. He has underplayed his hand every single time during this crisis, most importantly when not sending ground troops to stop the fall of Assad. This caused great problems with the younger members of the Revolutionary Guard, who are hardliners almost to a man. The elimination of senior members of defense and government is not strengthening moderates, it is strengthening hardliners.
Israel has said that Khameini is not off-limits for murder. If they do so, it will be a huge mistake. It will end the non-nuclear fatwa (though the Iraniams will lie about that) and put hardliners in charge. Ironically, the best thing Khameini could do for Iran right now is be Martyred. If Allah Wills It, let it be so. I don’t want to get too down on him, in many ways he’s run Iran very well, but he is a victim of Machiavelli’s dictum that when times change most leaders can’t change with the times and the virtues that made them good leaders in the past make them terrible leaders in the present.
The Russia/China Issue. Iran could have had a full military alliance with Russia. If they did, they’d be in a lot stronger position. Iran really wants to be an independent major regional power. The other option is to be the junior partner in a tripartate bloc with China and Russia. I understand why they want to avoid that, but being #3 in the world’s strongest alliance (and yes, that’s what it would be) comes with an absolute ton of benefits. They need to reconsider this issue. They will get some support from Russia and China, indeed, a lot of support, but neither country is going to go all out for them. If either would, Iran would be in a lot less danger.
Final Ironic Cowardly Nazi Note.
BREAKING: The military cabinet meeting this evening will take place in the new fortified IDF headquarters beneath Ichilov Hospital, which is protected from Iranian missiles after the Defense Ministry was hit last night and is now unsafe.
Ichilov Hospital is a camouflaged… pic.twitter.com/FWZqUul3CN
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) June 14, 2025
Most of Iran’s air and missile command was killed in an underground bunker during a meeting. Hezbollah’s senior leaders were killed in an underground bunker during a meeting. Israel knows Iran has missiles capable of doing the same thing to them, but they know that Iran won’t strike a hospital to kill them. They of course have destroyed many hospitals, in one were the high command of their enemies hiding.
May God grant the side of good, whichever side that is, victory in this conflict and bring an end to genocide.
***
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Oakchair
The elimination of senior members of defense and government is not strengthening moderates, it is strengthening hardliners
——
Every new and surviving old leader/official now has first hand experience that being passive and keeping the gloves on will not stop them from being bombed in their homes with their families present.
They should have known this already, but as you said “Machiavelli’s dictum that when times change most leaders can’t change with the times”
——
Israel has said that Khameini is not off-limits for murder.
—–
Israel is completely toasted on their own arrogance and bloodlust. Not even high grade infused edibles could get someone this burned.
“You know what we need after the last 3 wars? A war with Iran!! Israel fuck yea!”
“Let’s kill everyone who doesn’t want to wage war against us. Team Israel!”
If there is a a God and he loves projection Israel using sick children and women in a hospital as a human shield to plot their war slutting and genocide is getting God and their side.
Gas prices already went up 10% this weekend, wonder what they’ll be by Friday.
The EU decided their economies did just wonderful with the last war that caused their energy prices to shut down their heavy industries. So now it’s round 2.
david lamy
The “WSJ” has a front page article proclaiming Israel’s total air superiority over Iranian airspace. It quotes a US general (retired?) saying that Russia has not achieved air superiority over Ukraine which is why Ukraine is fighting it to a standstill! The article is a twofer, bullshit on both fronts.
I apologize for not linking, but surely this “WSJ” article will not stand scrutiny over the coming hours or at most, days.
DanFmTo
“This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.”
I see the same and am feeling pretty down on Iran’s chances. If the IAF has air freedom in Iran to take out launchers, they’ll grind Iran down. The stories of F-35s shot down appear to have been bullshit. Iran needs to go much bolder while they still can, or end up like Hezbollah.
Feral Finster
“I will point out that if Iran had done this after the embassy assassinations they might have restored deterrence and not suffered this particular attack. Cowardice has its price, and it is often greater than that of bravery….
Nations rot from the top, and this is clearly the fundamental problem in Iran. Khameini is cautious, even timid. He has underplayed his hand ever single time during this crisis….”
No lie, Holmes, no lie. Khamenei and the Russian leadership need to take to heart Krishna’s speech to Arjuna. They should have done this a long time ago.
Dithering, stalling, hemming, hawing. half-assing and wishy washy responses are what made this possible.
Poul
A point about Shia fatwas is that they are legal opinions that only are active when the cleric who issued it is alive.
A dead Khamenei means the new Supreme Leader can choose a new path. Perhaps a reason he still is alive?
Soredemos
Extreme fog of war going on, so I find it hard to tell exactly what Iran is throwing at Istael. But it’s clearly throwing a lot, and for days on end. So I think any notion that Iranian missile and air command has been broken is obviously wrong.
Real functioning organizations have redundancy and deep benches of candidates. They have standardized doctrines and procedures. They have institutional knowledge. It’s not enough to just kill some, or even most, or even all, the leaders and senior personnel. That hurts, it slows things down, but a real functioning organization with a clear mission statement and long established plans and protocols can adapt and roll with the punches.
That seems to be what is at minimum going on now. Iran lost senior people, hurriedly promoted successors, and leapt into the pre-planned responses.
That’s before getting to the matter of if this is just clearly out the conservative old guard and creating opportunities for a much more proactive, younger cohort.
And even surviving old guard leadership must now be forced to confront the obvious reality that the old approach wasn’t working. The decades of building an Axis of Resistance has clearly failed. You can’t pressure or gradually curb Israel. Israel, it turns out, isn’t a rational country that you can just build potential strategic capabilities to counter, but never have to use (‘ballistic missile arsenal in being’?) because Israel has some degree of sense of the limits of ots abilities and a sense of self-preservation. The only thing, if anything, that Israel will respond to is firm, unambiguous punches straight to the face. Fuck around and find out.
If only Iran had realized all this much earlier, when it still had most of its allies active. Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, all flinging meaningful barrages at once, Syria active just over the border and bringing what pressure it could.
mago
One reads so many different and contradictory reports and opinions, that it’s difficult to separate wheat from chaff.
One thing’s for certain, Israel and its supporters are insane. For heads of state and so called journalists to accuse Iran of being the aggressor for defending itself is beyond belief.
Cynicism and nihilism rule.
Thanks for the insights and reportage presented here. This is some fast breaking stuff. I’m praying for a quick and righteous resolution.
Daniil Adamov
Apropos of the ending: during World War One, Nikolai Gumilyov, who volunteered repeatedly to fight for the Entente, wrote that he prayed for the victory of whichever side will treat the vanquished with love and mercy as beloved brothers. A sound notion, though he was perhaps too obsessed with chivalric ideals. If there must be victories in this world, I wish for the victory of whichever side will treat enemy civilians better.
Carborundum
I don’t have a very good sense of how people are defining the relative effectiveness of the Iranian air defence network. The IAF is hitting high value strategic targets that have the densest point defences Iran has 400 – 500 klicks inside Iran – in daylight. Repeatedly. And those targets are eating heavy enough ordnance that the release points have to be well inside Iran. I don’t see a lot in that indicative of improved performance.
Overall, it looks to me like the IAF is successfully putting pressure on Iranian rocketry forces. The salvo sizes thus far are materially smaller than during the 2024 attacks, though I’m not sure whether the Iranians actually want to try and increase the number of simultaneous launches beyond current levels. It looks to me like the proportion of rockets making it through is significantly higher than Israeli statements (they’ve said 25% are making it through, which looks pretty optimistic to me).
I don’t think the determining factor here is their ability to saturate Israeli defences – it looks to me more like it’s a matter of how quickly the Iranians have to shoot and scoot and what look to be not hugely impressive CEPs. If I’m in their shoes, I’m less concerned about massively over-saturating Israeli defences than I am about the survivability of my launch platforms, which is probably the crux of the conflict for them – the supply of TELs and related vehicles is finite (and significantly smaller than a thousand). Their number one concern is regime survival and the key requirements for that are to seem credible to the populace and to have some credible capability remaining when the dust settles – if they empty the tubes, they really aren’t going to have much left.
The crux for the Israelis show short they can make their kill chain. If they’re able to establish pervasive surveillance and significant loiter time outside Iranian AD range, it’s going to be an exciting time to be an IRGC rocketeer.
KT Chong
So, I asked the various AI:
“If the Israel-Iran war does not end quickly, and the conflict persists, how likely will Russia and China become involved? (i.e., they start to quietly provide assistance and support to Iran, like what China has been doing for Russia in the Russia-Ukraine War.)”
Here are the answers from the AI:
ChatGPT:
Bottom Line:
Russia: 70–90% chance of indirect but meaningful support if the war drags on.
China: 40–60% chance, mostly economic and political, less likely military—unless the war threatens to reshape the regional balance of power or hurt China’s interests directly.
– – –
Grok 3:
Probability Assessment
Russia:
High Probability (60-70%): Political support (e.g., UN statements, mediation offers) and limited military-technical assistance (e.g., radars, intelligence sharing).
Moderate Probability (40-50%): Increased supply of niche military equipment (e.g., drones, components) if the conflict persists and Ukraine pressures ease.
Low Probability (10-20%): Direct military involvement or large-scale arms deliveries (e.g., Su-35 jets, S-400 systems) due to capacity constraints and risks with Israel.
China:
High Probability (70-80%): Continued economic support (oil purchases, trade) and diplomatic backing (condemning Israel, calling for peace).
Moderate Probability (30-40%): Quiet provision of dual-use goods or technical assistance for Iranian military production, similar to its Russia support.
Very Low Probability (5-10%): Direct military aid or significant strategic alignment with Iran, given economic ties with the West and regional balancing.
– – –
Perplexity.ai:
Summary
Russia:
Probability of Quietly Providing Assistance/Support to Iran: 70–80%
Probability of Direct Military Involvement: <5%
Reasoning: Russia is likely to offer rhetorical support, disinformation, and possibly limited arms or intelligence to Iran, especially to exploit U.S. distraction and benefit from higher oil prices. However, Russia is not obligated to provide military aid under its partnership with Iran and is already stretched thin by the Ukraine war, making direct military intervention highly improbable.
China:
Probability of Quietly Providing Assistance/Support to Iran: 60–70%
Probability of Direct Military Involvement: <1%
Reasoning: China will likely seek to protect its energy interests and regional stability, possibly offering diplomatic cover, economic support, and mediation. It is unlikely to provide direct military support, as its priority is to maintain trade and avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. or Israel.
In summary, both Russia and China are highly likely to quietly support Iran in non-military ways if the conflict persists, but the probability of direct military involvement is extremely low.
– – –
DeepSeek R1:
Conclusion
Russia (Likelihood: 70-80%): Will expand arms transfers and diplomatic cover, leveraging economic opportunities.
China (Likelihood: 50-60%): Focus on diplomatic mediation and economic lifelines, with limited military-tech aid.
Both powers will calibrate support to avoid crossing thresholds that invite direct U.S. retaliation, but prolonged conflict could see them emerge as key enablers of Iranian resilience.
Curt Kastens
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fM4pwZWrL8M
Brian Berletic and Danny Haiphong have never convinced me of anything. I figured their talking points out between 2003 and 2009, at least a decade before I ever heard of either of them.
To me it is self evident that the US MIC would want to commit genoicide in Gaza as that reduces the danger that Israel faces from it south at a time that I wouid be dealing with Iran on hehalf of the US MIC.
But I can understand why many people are confused about this relationship. The US MIC leadership has gone to extreme measures to muddy tha waters on this issue to make it seem as if the Israels control US Politicians and US Politicians control the MIC. When the reality is that the US MIC controls US Politicians, the US Think Tanks, and the Israelis, and Germany and Japan and France.
Brian Berletic still puts the blame for US behavior on people who work for non governmental US Corporations. But the bottom line of who is responsible is people who work in the Pentagon and the CIA. Though there is certianly a revolving door between the two sets of people. It should be obviouos that the two sets of people could not work towards a goal without centralized command and control. It should be obvious as to where that function could be.
But knowing that does not allow us to predict what the next move of the US MIC will be. So, it does not help Iran any to know that its primary enemy is not Israel but the US MIC. I am sure that the current Iranian leadership has known that for a long time.
ps one thing that I just figured out recently is that it was not an Arab Idea to have an oil boycott in 1973, thought they might have thought that it was an Arab idea. The idea was really Kissingers, or someone from the CIA that convinced Kissinger that it was a good idea. And by default that means that the Yom Kippur War was not an Egyptian Idea though I am sure that the Egyptians think that it was, because one can not have an oil embargo with out a war to justify it. Increasing the price of oil was part of the plan to increase US economic power after the collapse of the Britian FoodsCorporation.
Hahahahahaha, did I have you going there. Or, am I only pretending to be jocking for power.
Soredemos
@KT Chong
Why in the world would you waste time asking know-nothing bullshit generators to predict the geopolitical future? What a waste of sand and energy.
KT Chong
@Soredemos
Because I am kinda hoping that Russia and China will provide supports to Iran. That is really the only way for Iran to last… and prevail, (much like how China has played an instrumental role in helping to sustain Russia throughout the Ukraine War; and it is time for Russia to “pay it forward.”) It is not only in their own geopolitical and strategic interests to help Iran, but it is also the moral and right thing to do. You do not often get all those good points as once. (Often, something could be the beneficial thing to do for one’s national interests, but then it is the wrong thing to do, etc. This is not that case: this is BOTH the beneficial AND right thing for Russia and China to do.)
mago
Oh geez. Apparently my comment to which I added the correction disappeared into the ether, so I’ll recompose it.
Carborundum, your comment is sideways ten ways to hell. Let me count the ways. No. Never mind. I lack the energy and motivation.
KT Chong, it’s unclear to me why an intelligent individual would use a huge energy sucking search engine to refine and organize his themes and talking points.
Doesn’t matter what pundits, commenters and forecasters say, humans and non humans alike are suffering violent, painful and useless deaths. There’s environmental damage and destruction, and for what? I don’t care who has the biggest dick. It’s the suffering that matters, cause and effect.
bruce wilder
Like several other commenters, I feel acutely the paucity of reliable information. I am aware that I share Ian’s rooting interest in Iran’s team. But, the resulting copium to fill the information vacuum does not make me confident that I can assess what is happening accurately.
The depth and quality of Mossad’s penetration of Iran adds to my general impression of a state and polity that lacks power and efficiency of a society with great solidarity. I do know Iran remains deeply divided and that division is reflected in the division of many key institutions, including military, where the regular, professional establishment inherited from the Shah continues beside the headline-grabbing Revolutionary Guards. I simply do not know if the regular military has been subverted or if they are simply slow to stir. I guess time will tell.
I cannot imagine that Israel can hang on through a conflict of even 6 months duration. The Israeli elite are globally mobile — they will jump a ship taking on water even it does not sink. How does the Israeli economy keep going if the airport and seaport are closed regularly? Israel is a postage stamp of a country and even 100 missiles and rockets a day will strain the economy and society. All Iran has to do is stay in the game, repairing the breaches of its frontiers and internal polity. Israel cannot survive let alone win unless Iran settles.
I simply do not know if the current regime in Iran can sustain a war and survive. Iran cannot be compelled by Israel in the long-run. The disparity in size and domestic resources are simply too great. But the current Iranian regime may feel itself weak at home or abroad or both.
“when times change most
leaderspolities can’t change leaders to match the times” fast enough. Israel is up shit creek without a paddle because neither Israel’s polity nor the U.S. polity could get rid of Netanyahoo, despite more than a decade’s proof of his corruption and groundless war-mongering. I admit I have no idea what it would take to get Israel to wake up and spit out the poison — maybe nothing as the rot is so pervasive thru the whole society and indeed through organized Jewry throughout the world. It is easier for me to imagine a rejection of Jews in the U.S. — a quietly rising tide of resentment is palpable.A lot of attention is paid to what Russia and China might do though even AI apparently can predict what is eminently predictable, but if I were Israel I would worry more about the Islamic countries rallying to Iran. Iraq almost has to join Iran in an alliance, doesn’t it? Certainly Iraq cannot provide an unopposed path thru its airspace. Türkiye must find itself in an untenable position, if Iran proves itself persistent and resilient in the medium term. Saudi and the Gulf States, hostile as they have been to Iran, will be under pressure to support Iran whether Iran appears weak or strong; the quality of pressure will depend on events, but it will emerge with certainty.
GrimJim
Nuke Codes Broadcast
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-air-force-sends-out-nuclear-emergency-codes-as-ww3-fears-rise/ar-AA1GNXBz?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=6d6177259fcd4b38a3e7c47029fcd44c&ei=55
Trump Tells Everyone to Get Out of Tehran
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-urges-evacuation-of-tehran-and-leaves-g7-early-citing-mideast-crisis/ar-AA1GQ660?cmp_prftch=2&ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=6d6177259fcd4b38a3e7c47029fcd44c&ei=59
Trump Leaves G7 Summit Early
https://www.yahoo.com/news/group-seven-summit-opening-canada-040228353.html
Armada of USAF Tanker Planes Head East over Atlantic
https://www.yahoo.com/news/armada-usaf-tankers-just-deployed-095747420.html
“The Anti-War President”
When Israel nukes Tehran, Trump will become President-for-Life when he suspends the Constitution to “fight the terrorists”!
shagggz
I second Soredemos. I enjoy reading your KT Chong-generated words, KT Chong, but not those of these bullshit generators. Autoskipped like so much spam.
NR
Breaking: U.S. officials don’t know what’s happening because the White House is a chaotic mess and official messages contradict each other.
someofparts
Coverage of all this was pretty good on Breaking Points today. It wasn’t as good as Ian’s post, but was surprisingly good for US press coverage.
Z
https://x.com/afshinrattansi/status/1934766423173419403
Z
cc
For others looking for more information, thought I’d share this from another blogger that I like to follow, Indi/Indrajit Samarajiva, a Canadian-born/educated writer living in Sri Lanka.
https://indi.ca/the-iran-war-day-4/
DMC
At least one source(can’t find it at the moment) asserts that the Pakistani government has told Isreal that if they nuke Iran, Pakistan will retaiate with nukes of their own. If true, this completely alters the balance of power. Is Netanyahu crazy enough to risk a nuclear exchange?
Curt Kastens
Because there is no accountabilty in the world of the collective west the institutions become more and more corrupt as time passes because the unaccountable people leading the institutions become more and more corrupt as time passes which leads to those not in leadership positions becoming more and more corrupt as time passes.
No suprise that the collective west is now at a point that they are more evil than Hitlers Germany. Though this does not mean that I am saying that the NAZIs should have won WW2 because their institutions would have also become more and more corrupt but from an even more corrupt starting point.
Shit I should have actually put this on the open thread. But I started typing it here because I was re reading the comments here Now I do not want to erase it and start all over again. But If I were the stimulation director that is what I would do.
No wait if I were the stimulation director I would stop doing simulations.
Anyways a silver lining to this war between the US and Iran for me is we will now get to see if US aircraft carriers are vulnerable or not. Maybe it is worth doing a simulation to figure that out. And also the Iranian leaders will find out that the Saudis and the Turks and the Egyptians have been stringing them along. I am not sure about the Pakistanians but I think that they are stringing the Iranians along as well because if Pakistan nukes Israel in retaliation for an Israeli nuclear attack on Iran Pakistan will be nuked by the US. I doubt if either China or Russia will defend Pakistan so Pakistan will certianly chicken out when push comes to shove.
The failure of the Russians and Chinese to counter American viciousness with viciousness of their own means that humanity will face a slow extinction due to planetary warming and resource deplition rather than a quick death due to nuclear blasts, radiation poisoning, and nuclear winter. But hopefully Iran’s leadership will cause the world some suffering by deciding to destroy all of the oil wells in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait Iran gets nuked.
NR
This administration is an absolute dumpster fire.
GrimJim
My take: I think some war hawk told Trump tgat if he helps Israel destroy Iran he will look like a true hero and be celebrated as one by his core MAGA followers tipped the balance, and now Trump will give them whatever they need, short of YS boots on the ground, to finish off the Iranian regime.
Thus includes carte blanche to destroy Tehran, whether with passive bombing (supplying MOABs), a numerous employed as an EMP, or even a straight-up nuke.
Israel is going for it now because they know they will have no support from the US within two to four years. MAGA and the Republicans lose power for a generation or the US collapses in civil war and/or economic collapse any which way, so they need to take out Iran while they have the chance.
Tgat this plays well with the US war hawk anti-China, Russia, and Iran faction is only icing on the cake. Plus, one nuke against any Muslim nation fives Trump the cover to declare martial law…
So… 50/50 Tehran is destroyed within a week.
Z
CK,
The notion that the US MIC wanted to waste so many of their limited resources … and yes, they are limited by the production times it takes to make bombs and other military equipment, especially considering how much Ukraine has been given … on blowing up civilians in Gaza, mostly women and children, in order to neutralize resistance to the US MIC’s objective to go to war with Iran is a curious one, to say the least. Wasn’t there a more cost effective way to neutralize the threats from a population that Israel already has walled in and protect poor Israel from the women and children of Gaza?
Z
Curt Kastens
This is not a link to a Brian Berletic podcast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Heo6QxpGWyQ
Carborundum
Fresh footage circulating on Twitter showing an attack on the intelligence complexes in Herzliya (Mossad, Unit 8200 and some other MI stuff across the highway). Analytically interesting for two factors:
1) There is an interceptor launch site roughly in the middle of the impact area (centred approximately 100m N of the military compound E of the highway) and the Iranians still got four ground impacts.
2) The diameter of the impacts is approximately 850 metres, centred N of the E compound (the southernmost shot scored a hit in the support area of the military complex).
They might have thought all the impacts were going to be in the undeveloped areas to the N of the complex and chosen not to launch on these, but I really doubt it. Footage to me looks more like the battery ran through everything on the rails and the Iranians still made it through.
Important caveat that this is just one view, from one side of the complex, and we don’t know if there were any other impacts (or where they were if they exist) but bottom line I think this supports an assessment that it isn’t about massively over-saturating Israeli defences and Iranian CEPs aren’t all that impressive.
Bill H.
We tried to defeat North Vietnam by an aerial campaign. Yes, we had boots on the ground, but the main effort at achieving victory was “Rolling Thunder” and other air campaigns. How did that work out?
Now we have to nations, each trying to achieve victory over the other by flinging missiles and dropping bombs. It will be interesting to see how that turns out.
bruce wilder
MAGA seems to be providing the only coherent opposition in the U.S. to war with Iran.
NR
That is simply not true.
https://time.com/7294985/iran-israel-trump-us-war-powers-congress-massie-khanna-kaine/
Tom
Replace “Vietnam” with “Tehran”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ft0vkKCadgk&pp=ygUVY291bnRyeSBqb2Ugd29vZHN0b2Nr
Feral Finster
Comparisons to Iraq, Vietnam, Afghanistan are not apropos. If the United States has learned nothing else since 2003, it has learned that nation-building is difficult and politically costly. At the same time, smashing things up and turning a country into a failed state is relatively cheap and easy, both fiscally and politically.
See, e.g., Libya and Syria.
Mark Level
Crazy couple of days since the distraction of the No Kings day protest, and most of yesterday devoted to getting my newer computer which was hit with “black screen of death” fixed . . .
Oakchair is right of course, that even coincided with my Yi reading, the “spoiled food” would be thrown out and things would improve.
Watched Brian Berletic twice in the last couple of days– today a long session with the Duran, very informative. Yesterday he was on Danny Haiphong and made the point that “the side that does terrorism” is always the weaker side. This is a very germane point. He compared Israel in this respect to Ukraine. Ukraine shelled its own Russian-speaking citizens for years once the Donbass became independent. If memory serves, the body-count was nearly 13,000 when the SMO started up. I think they finally pushed Ukraine back far enough to stop direct shelling of the City of Donbass only about 8 months ago.
To Bill H.– Ali Abunimah did a great summary of the bombing of Vietnam early in the genocide after Oct. 7, he noted that they killed millions and it only hardened the Viet Cong’s resistance so that ultimately they won. He mentioned many other US genocides– not the Philippines (that was a big one where the US prevailed) but the Indonesian one which few people know about (supported by Kissinger-Nixon covertly, carried out by a US installed dictator), in Algeria the French failed. Mass extermination of civilians doesn’t really win hearts or minds, obviously, and even collaborators might get their own minds right when their own beloved family or friends are butchered or maimed.
Many people, Max Blumenthal who was just in Iran 3-4 weeks ago said he talked to many who were previously regime opponents and aren’t in these circumstances.
To NR, thank you for sharing. If Ro Khanna and Tim Kaine are cracks in dam of the DemonRat Elected’s support for the Genocide that is great news. At least 75% of Dem voters are against the Genocide, and now that it’s Trump’s, it would seem just common sense to walk away from the Extermination support. But most of them are cowards or bought off, of course.
I hope GrimJim is wrong, though he usually is correct. Suppose they do destroy Tehran? The country still has 92 million people to Israel’s far smaller populace. Command and Control needs to spread out to survive . . . Andrew Cockburn covered the first Yemen genocide in Harper’s by the Saudis in 2016 (funded by the wonderful O’Bomber) when peace negotiations had just started. Another case where Nietsche’s dictum held and the victims became stronger over time. (When I was praising commenters here on a recent thread if I left GrimJim and Oakchair off, please know they rank in my eyes.)
To cc, thank you for that link!! Very solid blog which I will look at again.
I returned to this post today after my computer was disabled. Before the crash, I could view all the Twitter videos. Not now. The media is “not available” and even clicking to make it so doesn’t work. I don’t know if this is the Tech Overlords, or perhaps some change in my video settings since repair. Annoying, in any case.
Donny is losing MAGA, but I saw in my Firefox “Pocket” that his War Cabinet is meeting today and may go full speed ahead. Were I to bet I’d go this way. Losing Colonial bullies tend to double down, cannot lose face as the “Big Dogs.”
As to Ian’s closing line, I think most of us know clearly who “the side of good” is. It’s not the side that has attacked all its neighbors, starves people and kills children, launches a Pearl Harbor type attack on an “opponent” sitting in Peace Talks viz the rivalry. Berletic’s point about terrorism was specifically on this cowardly attack. I think Donnie (or whomever is really in charge) is very likely to plunge further into Folly, though I do wonder if the professionals in the Pentagon will tell them that’d be a disaster and prevent it? We’ll know soon, I guess.
Carborundum
Given the movements of aircraft we’re seeing, I would not be that surprised to see the US become directly involved in kinetics. At present, I’d guess it most likely that they’re deploying to the southern margin of the Gulf to deter moves against the Gulfies / blockade of Hormuz and pin some element of Iranian forces east.
Fast forwarding a bit, the big challenge is going to be that only the USAF can hold Fordow and Natanz at threat and hitting them is going to seem really cheap given the extent to which the IAF has degraded Iranian defences. At the minimum it’s a chip, at maximum this is going to seem like an opportunity they can’t pass up.
cc
An interview packed with lots of interesting info that might provide a different take on what’s going on:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/laith-marouf-on-irans-escalatory-path-and-its-expectations-of-a-long-war.html
@Mark Level, glad you like it (indi.ca). I find value in reading his writing and Ian’s here.
GrimJim
Welp, looks like Trump is “warming up” to joining in on the destruction of Iran.
So we should have all out war shortly.
How utterly evil the US has become. We’ve always been monsters, we at least tried to put a nice face on and pay lip service to truth, justice, and all that.
But with this coming war, all that is stripped away. Not even a fig leaf, like with Afghanistan or Iraq. Just, “we can get away with it, let loose the dogs of war.”
As Feral said, it is not about regime change or even conquest at this point, it is just to transform a working society to a post-apocalyptic wasteland.
As Mark said, we know who the true evils are in this. And unfortunately for the US, there are no adults left in the Trump Regime, let alone anyone with ethics or morals to even say, “wait, let’s think about this…”
From leaders of the Free World to Pariah Nation in six months must be some kind of record…
bruce wilder
Democrats backing still another process argument — not arguing against war with Iran, but rather arguing that Congress should vote on war with Iran — is incoherent as far as I am concerned. Given the tangle of broad authorities given Presidents and the insane loss of control of budgeting and appropriations, they have to know their stance is mere virtue-signaling for the Other Party of Israel-first.